Comparison of perinatal outcome and mode of birth of twin and singleton pregnancies in migrant and refugee populations on the Thai Myanmar border: A population cohort.

BACKGROUND: In low- and middle-income countries twin births have a high risk of complications partly due to barriers to accessing hospital care. This study compares pregnancy outcomes, maternal and neonatal morbidity and mortality of twin to singleton pregnancy in refugee and migrant clinics on the Thai Myanmar border. METHODS: A retrospective review of medical records of all singleton and twin pregnancies delivered or followed at antenatal clinics of the Shoklo Malaria Research Unit from 1986 to 2020, with a known outcome and estimated gestational age. Logistic regression was done to compare the odds of maternal and neonatal outcomes between twin and singleton pregnancies. RESULTS: Between 1986 and 2020 this unstable and migratory population had a recorded outcome of pregnancy of 28 weeks or more for 597 twin births and 59,005 singleton births. Twinning rate was low and stable (<9 per 1,000) over 30 years. Three-quarters (446/597) of the twin pregnancies and 96% (56,626/59,005) of singletons birthed vaginally. During pregnancy, a significantly higher proportion of twin pregnancies compared to singleton had pre-eclampsia (7.0% versus 1.7%), gestational hypertension (9.9% versus 3.9%) and eclampsia (1.0% versus 0.2%). The stillbirth rate of twin 1 and twin 2 was higher compared to singletons: twin 1 25 per 1,000 (15/595), twin 2 64 per 1,000 (38/595) and singletons 12 per 1,000 (680/58,781). The estimated odds ratio (95% confidence interval (CI)) for stillbirth of twin 1 and twin 2 compared to singletons was 2.2 (95% CI 1.3-3.6) and 5.8 (95% CI 4.1-8.1); and maternal death 2.0 (0.95-11.4), respectively, As expected most perinatal deaths were 28 to <32 week gestation. CONCLUSION: In this fragile setting where access to hospital care is difficult, three in four twins birthed vaginally. Twin pregnancies have a higher maternal morbidity and perinatal mortality, especially the second twin, compared to singleton pregnancies.

Machine learning for accurate estimation of fetal gestational age based on ultrasound images.

Accurate estimation of gestational age is an essential component of good obstetric care and informs clinical decision-making throughout pregnancy. As the date of the last menstrual period is often unknown or uncertain, ultrasound measurement of fetal size is currently the best method for estimating gestational age. The calculation assumes an average fetal size at each gestational age. The method is accurate in the first trimester, but less so in the second and third trimesters as growth deviates from the average and variation in fetal size increases. Consequently, fetal ultrasound late in pregnancy has a wide margin of error of at least ±2 weeks' gestation. Here, we utilise state-of-the-art machine learning methods to estimate gestational age using only image analysis of standard ultrasound planes, without any measurement information. The machine learning model is based on ultrasound images from two independent datasets: one for training and internal validation, and another for external validation. During validation, the model was blinded to the ground truth of gestational age (based on a reliable last menstrual period date and confirmatory first-trimester fetal crown rump length). We show that this approach compensates for increases in size variation and is even accurate in cases of intrauterine growth restriction. Our best machine-learning based model estimates gestational age with a mean absolute error of 3.0 (95% CI, 2.9-3.2) and 4.3 (95% CI, 4.1-4.5) days in the second and third trimesters, respectively, which outperforms current ultrasound-based clinical biometry at these gestational ages. Our method for dating the pregnancy in the second and third trimesters is, therefore, more accurate than published methods.

Risk factor-based screening compared to universal screening for gestational diabetes mellitus in marginalized Burman and Karen populations on the Thailand-Myanmar border: An observational cohort.

Background: Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) contributes to maternal and neonatal morbidity. As data from marginalized populations remains scarce, this study compares risk-factor-based to universal GDM screening in a low resource setting. Methods: This is a secondary analysis of data from a prospective preterm birth cohort. Pregnant women were enrolled in the first trimester and completed a 75g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) at 24-32 weeks' gestation. To define GDM cases, Hyperglycaemia and Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes (HAPO trial) criteria were used. All GDM positive cases were treated. Sensitivity and specificity of risk-factor-based selection for screening (criteria: age ≥30y, obesity (Body mass index (BMI) ≥27.5kg/m 2), previous GDM, 1 st degree relative with diabetes, previous macrosomia (≥4kg), previous stillbirth, or symphysis-fundal height ≥90th percentile) was compared to universal screening using the OGTT as the gold standard. Adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes were compared by GDM status. Results: GDM prevalence was 13.4% (50/374) (95% CI: 10.3-17.2). Three quarters of women had at least one risk factor (n=271 women), with 37/50 OGTT positive cases correctly identified: sensitivity 74.0% (59.7-85.4) and specificity 27.8% (3.0-33.0). Burman women (self-identified) accounted for 29.1% of the cohort population, but 38.0% of GDM cases. Percentiles for birthweight (p=0.004), head circumference (p=0.002), and weight-length ratio (p=0.030) were higher in newborns of GDM positive compared with non-GDM mothers. 21.7% (75/346) of newborns in the cohort were small-for-gestational age (≤10 th percentile). In Burman women, overweight/obese BMI was associated with a significantly increased adjusted odds ratio 5.03 (95% CI: 1.43-17.64) for GDM compared with normal weight, whereas in Karen women, the trend in association was similar but not significant (OR 2.36; 95% CI 0.95-5.89). Conclusions: Risk-factor-based screening missed one in four GDM positive women. Considering the benefits of early detection of GDM and the limited additional cost of universal screening, a two-step screening program was implemented.

Distance matters: barriers to antenatal care and safe childbirth in a migrant population on the Thailand-Myanmar border from 2007 to 2015, a pregnancy cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Antenatal care and skilled childbirth services are important interventions to improve maternal health and lower the risk of poor pregnancy outcomes and mortality. A growing body of literature has shown that geographic distance to clinics can be a disincentive towards seeking care during pregnancy. On the Thailand-Myanmar border antenatal clinics serving migrant populations have found high rates of loss to follow-up of 17.4%, but decades of civil conflict have made the underlying factors difficult to investigate. Here we perform a comprehensive study examining the geographic, demographic, and health-related factors contributing to loss to follow-up. METHODS: Using patient records we conducted a spatial and epidemiological analysis looking for predictors of loss to follow-up and pregnancy outcomes between 2007 and 2015. We used multivariable negative binomial regressions to assess for associations between distance travelled to the clinic and birth outcomes (loss to follow-up, pregnancy complications, and time of first presentation for antenatal care.) RESULTS: We found distance travelled to clinic strongly predicts loss to follow-up, miscarriage, malaria infections in pregnancy, and presentation for antenatal care after the first trimester. People lost to follow-up travelled 50% farther than people who had a normal singleton childbirth (a ratio of distances (DR) 1.5; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.4 - 1.5). People with pregnancies complicated by miscarriage travelled 20% farther than those who did not have miscarriages (DR: 1.2; CI 1.1-1.3), and those with Plasmodium falciparum malaria in pregnancy travelled 60% farther than those without P. falciparum (DR: 1.6; CI: 1.6 - 1.8). People who delayed antenatal care until the third trimester travelled 50% farther compared to people who attended in the first trimester (DR: 1.5; CI: 1.4 - 1.5). CONCLUSIONS: This analysis provides the first evidence of the complex impact of geography on access to antenatal services and pregnancy outcomes in the rural, remote, and politically complex Thailand-Myanmar border region. These findings can be used to help guide evidence-based interventions to increase uptake of maternal healthcare both in the Thailand-Myanmar region and in other rural, remote, and politically complicated environments.

Placental histopathology in preterm birth with confirmed maternal infection: A systematic literature review.

Four in five neonatal deaths of preterm births occur in low and middle income countries and placental histopathology examination can help clarify the pathogenesis. Infection is known to play a significant role in preterm birth. The aim of this systematic review is to explore the association between placental histopathological abnormality and preterm birth in the presence of confirmed infection. PubMed/Medline, Scopus, Web of Science and Embase were searched using the keywords related to preterm birth, placental histopathology and infection. Titles and abstracts were screened and the full texts of eligible articles were reviewed to extract and summarise data. Of 1529 articles, only 23 studies (13 bacterial, 6 viral and 4 parasitic) were included, and they used 7 different gestational age windows, and 20 different histopathological classification systems, precluding data pooling. Despite this, histopathological chorioamnionitis, and funisitis (when examined) were commonly observed in preterm birth complicated by confirmed bacterial or viral, but not parasitic, infection. The presence of malaria parasites but not pigment in placenta was reported to increase the risk of PTB, but this finding was inconclusive. One in three studies were conducted in low and middle income countries. An array of: definitions of preterm birth subgroups, histological classification systems, histopathologic abnormalities and diagnostic methods to identify infections were reported in this systematic review. Commitment to using standardised terminology and classification of histopathological abnormalities associated with infections is needed to identify causality and potential treatment of preterm birth. Studies on preterm birth needs to occur in high burden countries and control for clinical characteristics (maternal, fetal, labor, and placental) that may have an impact on placental histopathological abnormalities.

A mixed methods evaluation of Advanced Life Support in Obstetrics (ALSO) and Basic Life Support in Obstetrics (BLSO) in a resource-limited setting on the Thailand-Myanmar border.

Background: Short emergency obstetric care (EmOC) courses have demonstrated improved provider confidence, knowledge and skills but impact on indicators such as maternal mortality and stillbirth is less substantial. This manuscript evaluates Advanced Life Support in Obstetrics (ALSO) and Basic Life Support (BLSO) as an adult education tool, in a protracted, post-conflict and resource-limited setting. Methods: A mixed methods evaluation was used. Basic characteristics of ALSO and BLSO participants and their course results were summarized. Kirkpatrick's framework for assessment of education effectiveness included: qualitative data on participants' reactions to training (level 1); and quantitative health indicator data on change in the availability and quality of EmOC and in maternal and/or neonatal health outcomes (level 4), by evaluation of the post-partum haemorrhage (PPH) related maternal mortality ratio (MMR) and stillbirth rate in the eight years prior and following implementation of ALSO and BLSO. Results: 561 Thailand-Myanmar border health workers participated in ALSO (n=355) and BLSO (n=206) courses 2008-2020. Pass rates on skills exceeded 90% for both courses while 50% passed the written ALSO test. Perceived confidence significantly improved for all items assessed. In the eight-year block preceding the implementation of ALSO and BLSO (2000-07) the PPH related MMR per 100,000 live births was 57.0 (95%CI 30.06-108.3)(9/15797) compared to 25.4 (95%CI 11.6-55.4)(6/23620) eight years following (2009-16), p=0.109. After adjustment, PPH related maternal mortality was associated with birth before ALSO/BLSO implementation aOR 3.825 (95%CI 1.1233-11.870), migrant (not refugee) status aOR 3.814 (95%CI 1.241-11.718) and attending ≤four antenatal consultations aOR 3.648 (95%CI 1.189-11.191). Stillbirth rate per 1,000 total births was 18.2 (95%CI 16.2-20.4)(291/16016) before the courses, and 11.1 (95%CI 9.8-12.5)(264/23884) after, p=0.038. Birth before ALSO/ BLSO implementation was associated with stillbirth aoR 1.235 (95%CI 1.018-1.500). Conclusions: This evaluation suggests ALSO and BLSO are sustainable, beneficial, EmOC trainings for adult education in protracted, post-conflict, resource-limited settings.

A randomized controlled trial of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine, artesunate-mefloquine and extended artemether-lumefantrine treatments for malaria in pregnancy on the Thailand-Myanmar border.

BACKGROUND: Artemisinin and artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) partner drug resistance in Plasmodium falciparum have spread across the Greater Mekong Subregion compromising antimalarial treatment. The current 3-day artemether-lumefantrine regimen has been associated with high treatment failure rates in pregnant women. Although ACTs are recommended for treating Plasmodium vivax malaria, no clinical trials in pregnancy have been reported. METHODS: Pregnant women with uncomplicated malaria on the Thailand-Myanmar border participated in an open-label randomized controlled trial comparing dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP), artesunate-mefloquine (ASMQ) and a 4-day artemether-lumefantrine regimen (AL+). The primary endpoint for P. falciparum infections was the PCR-corrected cure rate and for P. vivax infections was recurrent parasitaemia, before delivery or day 63, whichever was longer, assessed by Kaplan-Meier estimate. RESULTS: Between February 2010 and August 2016, 511 pregnant women with malaria (353 P. vivax, 142 P. falciparum, 15 co-infections, 1 Plasmodium malariae) were randomized to either DP (n=170), ASMQ (n=169) or AL+ (n=172) treatments. Successful malaria elimination efforts in the region resulted in premature termination of the trial. The majority of women had recurrent malaria (mainly P. vivax relapses, which are not prevented by these treatments). Recurrence-free proportions (95% confidence interval [95% CI]) for vivax malaria were 20.6% (5.1-43.4) for DP (n=125), 46.0% (30.9-60.0) for ASMQ (n=117) and 28.7% (10.0-50.8) for AL+ (n=126). DP and ASMQ provided longer recurrence-free intervals. PCR-corrected cure rates (95% CI) for falciparum malaria were 93.7% (81.6-97.9) for DP (n=49), 79.6% (66.1-88.1) for AMSQ (n=55) and 87.5% (74.3-94.2) for AL+ (n=50). Overall 65% (85/130) of P. falciparum infections had Pfkelch13 propeller mutations which increased over time and recrudescence occurred almost exclusively in them; risk ratio 9.42 (95% CI 1.30-68.29). Among the women with falciparum malaria, 24.0% (95% CI 16.8-33.6) had P. vivax parasitaemia within 4 months. Nausea, vomiting, dizziness and sleep disturbance were more frequent with ASMQ. Miscarriage, small-for-gestational-age and preterm birth did not differ significantly among the treatment groups, including first trimester exposures (n=46). CONCLUSIONS: DP was well tolerated and safe, and was the only drug providing satisfactory efficacy for P. falciparum-infected pregnant woman in this area of widespread artemisinin resistance. Vivax malaria recurrences are very common and warrant chloroquine prophylaxis after antimalarial treatment in this area. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT01054248 , registered on 22 January 2010.

Falciparum but not vivax malaria increases the risk of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy in women followed prospectively from the first trimester.

BACKGROUND: Malaria and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDoP) affect millions of pregnancies worldwide, particularly those of young, first-time mothers. Small case-control studies suggest a positive association between falciparum malaria and risk of pre-eclampsia but large prospective analyses are lacking. METHODS: We characterized the relationship between malaria in pregnancy and the development of HDoP in a large, prospectively followed cohort. Pregnant women living along the Thailand-Myanmar border, an area of low seasonal malaria transmission, were followed at antenatal clinics between 1986 and 2016. The relationships between falciparum and vivax malaria during pregnancy and the odds of gestational hypertension, pre-eclampsia, or eclampsia were examined using logistic regression amongst all women and then stratified by gravidity. RESULTS: There were 23,262 singleton pregnancies in women who presented during the first trimester and were followed fortnightly. Falciparum malaria was associated with gestational hypertension amongst multigravidae (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 2.59, 95%CI 1.59-4.23), whereas amongst primigravidae, it was associated with the combined outcome of pre-eclampsia/eclampsia (AOR 2.61, 95%CI 1.01-6.79). In contrast, there was no association between vivax malaria and HDoP. CONCLUSIONS: Falciparum but not vivax malaria during pregnancy is associated with hypertensive disorders of pregnancy.

Burden of soil-transmitted helminth infection in pregnant refugees and migrants on the Thailand-Myanmar border: Results from a retrospective cohort.

BACKGROUND: Soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections are widespread in tropical and subtropical regions. While many STH infections are asymptomatic, vulnerable populations such as pregnant women face repercussions such as aggravation of maternal anaemia. However, data on prevalence and the effect of STH infections in pregnancy are limited. The aim of this analysis was to describe the burden of STH infections within and between populations of pregnant women from a local refugee camp to a mobile migrant population, and to explore possible associations between STH infection and pregnancy outcomes. METHODOLOGY: This is a retrospective review of records from pregnant refugee and migrant women who attended Shoklo Malaria Research Unit antenatal care (ANC) clinics along the Thailand-Myanmar border between July 2013 and December 2017. Inclusion was based on provision of a stool sample during routine antenatal screening. A semi-quantitative formalin concentration method was employed for examination of faecal samples. The associations between STH mono-infections and maternal anaemia and pregnancy outcomes (i.e., miscarriage, stillbirth, preterm birth, and small for gestational age) were estimated using regression analysis. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Overall, 12,742 pregnant women were included, of whom 2,702 (21.2%) had a confirmed infection with either Ascaris lumbricoides, hookworm, Trichuris trichiura, or a combination of these. The occurrence of STH infections in the refugee population (30.8%; 1,246/4,041) was higher than in the migrant population (16.7%; 1,456/8,701). A. lumbricoides was the predominant STH species in refugees and hookworm in migrants. A. lumbricoides and hookworm infection were associated with maternal anaemia at the first ANC consultation with adjusted odds ratios of 1.37 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.08-1.72) and 1.65 (95% CI 1.19-2.24), respectively. Pregnant women with A. lumbricoides infection were less likely to miscarry when compared to women with negative stool samples (adjusted hazard ratio 0.63, 95% CI 0.48-0.84). STH infections were not significantly associated with stillbirth, preterm birth or being born too small for gestational age. One in five pregnant women in this cohort had STH infection. Association of STH infection with maternal anaemia, in particular in the event of late ANC enrolment, underlines the importance of early detection and treatment of STH infection. A potential protective effect of A. lumbricoides infection on miscarriage needs confirmation in prospective studies.

Short maternal stature and gestational weight gain among refugee and migrant women birthing appropriate for gestational age term newborns: a retrospective cohort on the Myanmar-Thailand border, 2004-2016.

INTRODUCTION: To examine the interactions between short maternal stature, body mass index (BMI) and gestational weight gain (GWG) among appropriate for gestational age (AGA) term newborns in a population of refugees and migrants in Southeast Asia. METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study from 2004 to 2016, including women delivering term, singleton newborns, with first trimester height, weight and gestation dated by ultrasound and a last body weight measured within 4 weeks of birth. AGA newborns were those not classified as small for gestational age or large for gestational age by either INTERGROWTH-21st or Gestation Related Optimal Weight standards. The influence of maternal stature on GWG in delivering an AGA newborn was analysed, with GWG compared with existing National Academy of Medicine (NAM) recommendations. RESULTS: 4340 women delivered AGA newborns. Mean maternal height (SD) was 151.5 cm (5.13), with 58.5% of women considered too short by INTERGROWTH-21st standards. Only one in four women (26.5%, 1150/4340) had GWG within NAM recommendations. Women of shorter stature had a significantly lower mean GWG compared with taller women in underweight and normal BMI categories (p<0.001 for both BMI categories). Mean GWG of overweight and obese women did not differ by height (p=1.0 and p=0.85, respectively) and fell within the lower range of NAM recommendations. CONCLUSION: These results suggest that short maternal stature can be an important predictor of GWG and should be considered with prepregnancy BMI. Limited-resource settings and special populations need robust GWG recommendations that reflect height and BMI.

Outcomes for 298 breastfed neonates whose mothers received ketamine and diazepam for postpartum tubal ligation in a resource-limited setting.

BACKGROUND: Anesthesia in lactating women is frequently indicated for time-sensitive procedures such as postpartum tubal ligation. Ketamine and diazepam are two of the most commonly used anesthetic agents in low resource settings, but their safety profile in lactating women has not been established. METHODS: Medical records of post-partum tubal ligations between 2013 and 2018 at clinics of the Shoklo Malaria Research Unit were reviewed for completeness of key outcome variables. Logistic regression identified presence or absence of associations between drug doses and adverse neonatal outcomes: clinically significant weight loss (≥95th percentile) and neonatal hyperbilirubinemia requiring phototherapy. RESULTS: Of 358 records reviewed, 298 were lactating women with singleton, term neonates. There were no severe outcomes in mothers or neonates. On the first postoperative day 98.0% (290/296) of neonates were reported to be breastfeeding well and 6.4% (19/298) had clinically significant weight loss. Phototherapy was required for 13.8% (41/298) of neonates. There was no association between either of the outcomes and increasing ketamine doses (up to 3.8 mg/kg), preoperative oral diazepam (5 mg), or increasing lidocaine doses (up to 200 mg). Preoperative oral diazepam resulted in lower doses of intraoperative anesthetics. Doses of intravenous diazepam above 0.1 mg/kg were associated with increased risk (adjusted odds ratio per 0.1 mg/kg increase, 95%CI) of weight loss (1.95, 95%CI 1.13-3.35, p = 0.016) and jaundice requiring phototherapy (1.87, 95%CI 1.11-3.13, p = 0.017). CONCLUSIONS: In resource-limited settings ketamine use appears safe in lactating women and uninterrupted breastfeeding should be encouraged and supported. Preoperative oral diazepam may help reduce intraoperative anesthetic doses, but intravenous diazepam should be used with caution and avoided in high doses in lactating women.

Randomized Controlled Trial of the Electrocardiographic Effects of Four Antimalarials for Pregnant Women with Uncomplicated Malaria on the Thailand-Myanmar Border.

Quinoline antimalarials cause drug-induced electrocardiographic QT prolongation, a potential risk factor for torsade de pointes. The effects of currently used antimalarials on the electrocardiogram (ECG) were assessed in pregnant women with malaria. Pregnant women with microscopy-confirmed parasitemia of any malaria species were enrolled in an open-label randomized controlled trial on the Thailand-Myanmar border from 2010 to 2016. Patients were randomized to the standard regimen of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) or artesunate-mefloquine (ASMQ) or an extended regimen of artemether-lumefantrine (AL+). Recurrent Plasmodium vivax infections were treated with chloroquine. Standard 12-lead electrocardiograms were assessed on day 0, 4 to 6 h following the last dose, and day 7. QT was corrected for the heart rate by a linear mixed-effects model-derived population-based correction formula (QTcP = QT/RR0.381). A total of 86 AL+, 82 ASMQ, 88 DP, and 21 chloroquine-treated episodes were included. No patients had an uncorrected QT interval nor QTcP of >480 ms at any time. QTcP corresponding to peak drug concentration was longer in the DP group (adjusted predicted mean difference, 17.84 ms; 95% confidence interval [CI], 11.58 to 24.10; P < 0.001) and chloroquine group (18.31 ms; 95% CI, 8.78 to 27.84; P < 0.001) than in the AL+ group, but not different in the ASMQ group (2.45 ms; 95% CI, -4.20 to 9.10; P = 0.47) by the multivariable linear mixed-effects model. There was no difference between DP and chloroquine (P = 0.91). QTc prolongation resulted mainly from widening of the JT interval. In pregnant women, none of the antimalarial drug treatments exceeded conventional thresholds for an increased risk of torsade de pointes.

Deleterious effects of malaria in pregnancy on the developing fetus: a review on prevention and treatment with antimalarial drugs.

All malaria infections are harmful to both the pregnant mother and the developing fetus. One in ten maternal deaths in malaria endemic countries are estimated to result from Plasmodium falciparum infection. Malaria is associated with a 3-4 times increased risk of miscarriage and a substantially increased risk of stillbirth. Current treatment and prevention strategies reduce, but do not eliminate, malaria's damaging effects on pregnancy outcomes. Reviewing evidence generated from meta-analyses, systematic reviews, and observational data, the first paper in this Series aims to summarise the adverse effects of malaria in pregnancy on the fetus and how the current drug treatment and prevention strategies can alleviate these effects. Although evidence supports the safety and treatment efficacy of artemisinin-based combination therapies in the first trimester, these therapies have not been recommended by WHO for the treatment of malaria at this stage of pregnancy. Intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in pregnancy with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine is contraindicated in the first trimester and provides imperfect chemoprevention because of inadequate dosing, poor (few and late) antenatal clinic attendance, increasing antimalarial drug resistance, and decreasing naturally acquired maternal immunity due to the decreased incidence of malaria. Alternative strategies to prevent malaria in pregnancy are needed. The prevention of all malaria infections by providing sustained exposure to effective concentrations of antimalarial drugs is key to reducing the adverse effects of malaria in pregnancy.

Achieving accurate estimates of fetal gestational age and personalised predictions of fetal growth based on data from an international prospective cohort study: a population-based machine learning study.

Background: Preterm birth is a major global health challenge, the leading cause of death in children under 5 years of age, and a key measure of a population's general health and nutritional status. Current clinical methods of estimating fetal gestational age are often inaccurate. For example, between 20 and 30 weeks of gestation, the width of the 95% prediction interval around the actual gestational age is estimated to be 18-36 days, even when the best ultrasound estimates are used. The aims of this study are to improve estimates of fetal gestational age and provide personalised predictions of future growth. Methods: Using ultrasound-derived, fetal biometric data, we developed a machine learning approach to accurately estimate gestational age. The accuracy of the method is determined by reference to exactly known facts pertaining to each fetus-specifically, intervals between ultrasound visits-rather than the date of the mother's last menstrual period. The data stem from a sample of healthy, well-nourished participants in a large, multicentre, population-based study, the International Fetal and Newborn Growth Consortium for the 21st Century (INTERGROWTH-21st). The generalisability of the algorithm is shown with data from a different and more heterogeneous population (INTERBIO-21st Fetal Study). Findings: In the context of two large datasets, we estimated gestational age between 20 and 30 weeks of gestation with 95% confidence to within 3 days, using measurements made in a 10-week window spanning the second and third trimesters. Fetal gestational age can thus be estimated in the 20-30 weeks gestational age window with a prediction interval 3-5 times better than with any previous algorithm. This will enable improved management of individual pregnancies. 6-week forecasts of the growth trajectory for a given fetus are accurate to within 7 days. This will help identify at-risk fetuses more accurately than currently possible. At population level, the higher accuracy is expected to improve fetal growth charts and population health assessments. Interpretation: Machine learning can circumvent long-standing limitations in determining fetal gestational age and future growth trajectory, without recourse to often inaccurately known information, such as the date of the mother's last menstrual period. Using this algorithm in clinical practice could facilitate the management of individual pregnancies and improve population-level health. Upon publication of this study, the algorithm for gestational age estimates will be provided for research purposes free of charge via a web portal. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Office of Science (US Department of Energy), US National Science Foundation, and National Institute for Health Research Oxford Biomedical Research Centre.

Nutrition in transition: historical cohort analysis summarising trends in under- and over-nutrition among pregnant women in a marginalised population along the Thailand-Myanmar border from 1986 to 2016.

The objective of the present study is to summarise trends in under- and over-nutrition in pregnant women on the Thailand-Myanmar border. Refugees contributed data from 1986 to 2016 and migrants from 1999 to 2016 for weight at first antenatal consultation. BMI and gestational weight gain (GWG) data were available during 2004-2016 when height was routinely measured. Risk factors for low and high BMI were analysed for <18·5 kg/m2 or ≥23 kg/m2, respectively. A total of 48 062 pregnancies over 30 years were available for weight analysis and 14 646 pregnancies over 13 years (2004-2016) had BMI measured in first trimester (<14 weeks' gestational age). Mean weight at first antenatal consultation in any trimester increased over the 30-year period by 2·0 to 5·2 kg for all women. First trimester BMI has been increasing on average by 0·5 kg/m2 for refugees and 0·6 kg/m2 for migrants, every 5 years. The proportion of women with low BMI in the first trimester decreased from 16·7 to 12·7 % for refugees and 23·1 to 20·2 % for migrants, whereas high BMI increased markedly from 16·9 to 33·2 % for refugees and 12·3 to 28·4 % for migrants. Multivariate analysis demonstrated low BMI as positively associated with being Burman, Muslim, primigravid, having malaria during pregnancy and smoking, and negatively associated with refugee as opposed to migrant status. High BMI was positively associated with being Muslim and literate, and negatively associated with age, primigravida, malaria, anaemia and smoking. Mean GWG was 10·0 (sd 3·4), 9·5 (sd 3·6) and 8·3 (sd 4·3) kg, for low, normal and high WHO BMI categories for Asians, respectively.

Trends and birth outcomes in adolescent refugees and migrants on the Thailand-Myanmar border, 1986-2016: an observational study.

Background: Currently there are more adolescents (10-19 years old) and young adults (20-24 years old) than ever. Reproductive health among this age group is often overlooked, although it can have a profound impact on the future. This is especially the case in conflict zones and refugee settings, where there is a heightened need for reproductive health care, and where both the resources and possibility for data collation are usually limited. Methods: Here we report on pregnancies, birth outcomes and risk factors for repeat pregnancies among adolescent and young adult refugees and migrants from antenatal clinics on the Thailand-Myanmar border across a 30 year time span. Results: Pregnancy and fertility rates were persistently high. Compared with 20-24-year-olds, 15-19-year-olds who reported being unable to read had 2.35 (CI: 1.97 - 2.81) times the odds for repeat pregnancy (gravidity >2). In primigravidae, the proportion of small for gestational age (SGA) and preterm births (PTB), and neonatal deaths (NND) decreased with increasing maternal age (all p <0.001). After adjustment, this association retained significance for PTB (cut-off point, ≤18 years) but not for SGA and NND. Conclusions: There is considerable room for improvement in adolescent pregnancy rates in these border populations, and educational opportunities may play a key role in effective interventions.

Prevalences of inherited red blood cell disorders in pregnant women of different ethnicities living along the Thailand-Myanmar border.

Background: Inherited red blood cell disorders are prevalent in populations living in malaria endemic areas; G6PD deficiency is associated with oxidant-induced haemolysis and abnormal haemoglobin variants may cause chronic anaemia. In pregnant women, microcytic anaemia caused by haemoglobinopathies mimics iron deficiency, complicating diagnosis and treatment. Anaemia during pregnancy is associated with morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study was to characterise the prevalence of G6PD deficiency and haemoglobinopathies  among the pregnant population living along the Thailand-Myanmar border. Pregnant women attending antenatal clinics in this area belong to several distinct ethnic groups. Methods: Data were available for 13,520 women attending antenatal care between July 2012 and September 2016. Screening for G6PD deficiency was done by fluorescent spot test routinely. G6PD genotyping and quantitative phenotyping by spectrophotometry were analysed in a subsample of women. Haemoglobin variants were diagnosed by HPLC or capillary electrophoresis and molecular methods. The prevalence and distribution of inherited red blood cell disorders was analysed with respect to ethnicity. Results: G6PD deficiency was common, especially in the Sgaw Karen ethnic group, in whom the G6PD Mahidol variant allele frequency was 20.7%. Quantitative G6PD phenotyping showed that 60.5% of heterozygous women had an intermediate enzymatic activity between 30% and 70% of the population median. HbE, beta-thalassaemia trait and Hb Constant Spring were found overall in 15.6% of women. Only 45.2% of women with low percentage of HbA 2 were carriers of mutations on the alpha globin genes. Conclusions: Distribution of G6PD and haemoglobin variants varied among the different ethnic groups, but the prevalence was generally high throughout the cohort. These findings encourage the implementation of an extended program of information and genetic counselling to women of reproductive age and will help inform future studies and current clinical management of anaemia in the pregnant population in this region.

Strategies for the prevention of perinatal hepatitis B transmission in a marginalized population on the Thailand-Myanmar border: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: Data on the cost effectiveness of hepatitis B virus (HBV) screening and vaccination strategies for prevention of vertical transmission of HBV in resource limited settings is sparse. METHODS: A decision tree model of HBV prevention strategies utilised data from a cohort of 7071 pregnant women on the Thailand-Myanmar border using a provider perspective. All options included universal HBV vaccination for newborns in three strategies: (1) universal vaccination alone; (2) universal vaccination with screening of women during antenatal visits with rapid diagnostic test (RDT) plus HBV immune globulin (HBIG) administration to newborns of HBV surface antigen positive women; and (3) universal vaccination with screening of women during antenatal visits plus HBIG administration to newborns of women testing HBV e antigen positive by confirmatory test. At the time of the study, the HBIG after confirmatory test strategy was used. The costs in United States Dollars (US$), infections averted and incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated and sensitivity analyses were conducted. A willingness to pay threshold of US$1200 was used. RESULTS: The universal HBV vaccination was the least costly option at US$4.33 per woman attending the clinic. The HBIG after (RDT) strategy had an ICER of US$716.78 per infection averted. The HBIG after confirmatory test strategy was not cost-effective due to extended dominance. The one-way sensitivity analysis showed that while the transmission parameters and cost of HBIG had the biggest impact on outcomes, the HBIG after confirmatory test only became a cost-effective option when a low test cost was used or a high HBIG cost was used. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that HBIG after RDT had an 87% likelihood of being cost-effective as compared to vaccination only at a willingness to pay threshold of US$1200. CONCLUSIONS: HBIG following confirmatory test is not a cost-effective strategy for preventing vertical transmission of HBV in the Thailand-Myanmar border population. By switching to HBIG following rapid diagnostic test, perinatal infections will be reduced by nearly one third. This strategy may be applicable to similar settings for marginalized populations where the confirmatory test is not logistically possible.

Influence of the number and timing of malaria episodes during pregnancy on prematurity and small-for-gestational-age in an area of low transmission.

BACKGROUND: Most evidence on the association between malaria in pregnancy and adverse pregnancy outcomes focuses on falciparum malaria detected at birth. We assessed the association between the number and timing of falciparum and vivax malaria episodes during pregnancy on small-for-gestational-age (SGA) and preterm birth. METHODS: We analysed observational data collected from antenatal clinics on the Thailand-Myanmar border (1986-2015). We assessed the effects of the total number of malaria episodes in pregnancy on SGA and the effects of malaria in pregnancy on SGA, very preterm birth, and late preterm birth, by the gestational age at malaria detection and treatment using logistic regression models with time-dependent malaria variables (monthly intervals). World Health Organisation definitions of very preterm birth (≥28 and <32 weeks) and late preterm birth (≥32 and <37 weeks) and international SGA standards were used. RESULTS: Of 50,060 pregnant women followed, 8221 (16%) had malaria during their pregnancy. Of the 50,060 newborns, 10,005 (21%) were SGA, 540 (1%) were very preterm, and 4331 (9%) were late preterm. The rates of falciparum and vivax malaria were highest at 6 and 5 weeks' gestation, respectively. The odds of SGA increased linearly by 1.13-fold (95% confidence interval: 1.09, 1.17) and 1.27-fold (1.21, 1.33) per episode of falciparum and vivax malaria, respectively. Falciparum malaria at any gestation period after 12-16 weeks and vivax malaria after 20-24 weeks were associated with SGA (falciparum odds ratio, OR range: 1.15-1.63 [p range: <0.001-0.094]; vivax OR range: 1.12-1.54 [p range: <0.001-0.138]). Falciparum malaria at any gestation period after 24-28 weeks was associated with either very or late preterm birth (OR range: 1.44-2.53; p range: <0.001-0.001). Vivax malaria at 24-28 weeks was associated with very preterm birth (OR: 1.79 [1.11, 2.90]), and vivax malaria at 28-32 weeks was associated with late preterm birth (OR: 1.23 [1.01, 1.50]). Many of these associations held for asymptomatic malaria. CONCLUSIONS: Protection against malaria should be started as early as possible in pregnancy. Malaria control and elimination efforts in the general population can avert the adverse consequences associated with treated asymptomatic malaria in pregnancy.

Empirical lessons regarding contraception in a protracted refugee setting: A descriptive study from Maela camp on the Thai-Myanmar border 1996 - 2015.

Conflict settings and refugee camps can be chaotic places, with large and rapid population movements, exacerbated public health problems, and ad hoc health services. Reproductive health care that includes family planning is of heightened importance in such settings, however, funding and resources tend to be constrained and geared towards acute health services such as trauma management and infectious disease containment. Here we report on the complexities and challenges of providing family planning in a post-emergency refugee setting, using the example of the largest refugee camp on the Thai-Myanmar border, in existence now for over 30 years. Data from 2009 demonstrates an upward trend in uptake of all contraceptives, especially long acting reversible contraception (LARC) and permanent methods (e.g. sterilization) over time. Increased uptake occurred during periods of time when there were boosts in funding or when barriers to access were alleviated. For example a surgeon fluent in local languages is correlated with increased uptake of tubal ligation in females. These data indicate that funding directed toward contraceptives in this refugee setting led to increases in contraceptives use. However, contraceptive uptake estimates depend on the baseline population which is difficult to measure in this setting. As far as we are aware, this is the longest reported review of family planning services for a refugee camp setting to date. The lessons learned from this setting may be valuable given the current global refugee crisis.